The Glass Cannon: Why Rybakina’s Riyadh Millions Don’t Mask the Cracks
It’s January 2026. Elena Rybakina just pocketed the biggest cheque in tennis history at the WTA Finals, and the pundits are screaming "She's back!" But look closer at the 2025 Grand Slam log, and you’ll see a different story. Is the Ivanisevic era a revolution, or just a fresh coat of paint on a fragile engine?
Let’s be real for a second. In Australia, we love a big server. We love the "wham, bam, thank you mam" efficiency of an ace down the T. And Elena Rybakina, with that fluid, effortless motion, is arguably the best spot-server the women’s game has seen since Serena. But as we head into another Australian Open, I’m finding it hard to buy the stock. Not because she lacks talent—she has that in buckets—but because she seems to be playing a completely different sport to Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka.
While the "Big Two" are grinding out results week in, week out, Rybakina has become the tour’s most expensive part-timer. Sure, she just won the WTA Finals in Riyadh (and the absurd $5 million prize that comes with it). A great weekend? Absolutely. A sign of dominance? I’m not sold.
The "Sick Note" Stigma
It’s harsh, but the numbers don’t care about feelings. The 2025 season was supposed to be the year Goran Ivanisevic—Novak Djokovic’s former guru—turned Rybakina into a mental fortress. Instead, we got a déjà vu of medical timeouts and inexplicable exits. The narrative shifted from "unlucky" to "unreliable."
"You can't build a dynasty from the physio room. The talent is undeniable, but the availability is the best ability she's missing right now."
When you look at her Grand Slam record for 2025, it reads more like a journeyman’s diary than a World No. 5’s resume. Fourth round at Melbourne (shoulder), fourth round in Paris (Swiatek again), and a shock third-round exit at Wimbledon to Clara Tauson. For a player whose game is tailor-made for grass, that Wimbledon loss wasn't just a blip; it was an alarm bell.
Ivanisevic: The Fixer or The Figurehead?
Bringing in Goran was the PR coup of the year. It signalled intent. "I’m serious, I hired the guy who managed Novak." But has the serve actually improved? Marginally. What hasn’t changed is the fragility. Ivanisevic can teach her how to toss the ball, but he can’t teach an immune system to fight off the mystery illnesses that seem to plague her every time the schedule tightens.
The scepticism here isn't about her peak level—her peak beats everyone. It's about her floor. Swiatek’s "bad day" is a semi-final. Rybakina’s "bad day" is a withdrawal before the coin toss.
| Stat Category (2025) | Elena Rybakina | Aryna Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam Finals | 0 | 2 |
| Completed Tournaments | 14 | 19 |
| Titles Won | 3 (inc. WTA Finals) | 4 |
| Withdrawals (Inj/Illness) | 4 | 1 |
The Ghost of Vukov
We can’t ignore the elephant in the room: the split from Stefano Vukov in late 2024. The investigation, the rumours of a toxic dynamic—it was messy. While the separation was necessary (and overdue), the transition period has exposed how much she relied on his intensity. Ivanisevic is calmer, more "zen." But does Rybakina need zen? Or does she need the fire?
Her win in Riyadh suggests she might be finding a middle ground. Beating Sabalenka in the final was a statement. But we’ve seen this movie before. She wins a big one (Indian Wells 2023, Rome 2023), everyone hypes her up for the Slam, and then... silence.
👀 Why is the "Big Three" narrative a myth?
What 2026 Needs to Prove
So, here we are. The Australian summer is heating up. Rybakina is talking a good game about "fitness tests in Dubai" and "new routines." But as an analyst, I’m keeping my wallet closed. The tour is brutal, and the gap between the top two and the rest is widening, not shrinking.
If Rybakina wants to be more than just the "Ice Queen" with the pretty backhand, 2026 can’t just be about winning the rich tournaments. It has to be about surviving the grind. Until she lifts another Slam trophy, that Riyadh cheque is just severance pay for wasted potential.
