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The Monken Paradox: Why the NFL's New Obsession Might Be a Trap

NFL owners are scrambling to hire Todd Monken, convinced he holds the secret to offensive alchemy. But are they buying a system, or just renting the afterglow of Lamar Jackson’s brilliance? The numbers suggest a gamble.

MB
Mehdi Ben ArfaJournaliste
28 janvier 2026 à 17:053 min de lecture
The Monken Paradox: Why the NFL's New Obsession Might Be a Trap

So, we’re doing this again? The NFL coaching carousel has stopped spinning, and the finger is pointing squarely at Todd Monken. It makes sense, doesn’t it? When you engineer back-to-back offensive juggernauts in Baltimore and turn Lamar Jackson from a "running back" (remember those lazy takes?) into the league’s most efficient pocket surgeon, you get the keys to a franchise. That’s the rule.

But let’s pause the coronation for a second. (I know, I’m the buzzkill). If you look closely at the sudden adoration for the 59-year-old coordinator, you realize it signals a desperate pivot in the league’s philosophy. The era of the "Boy Genius"—the 30-something Sean McVay clone who memorized a single playbook—is fading. Owners now want "Adaptability." They want the guy who can win with a Stetson Bennett at Georgia and a Lamar Jackson in Baltimore.

The problem? They might be confusing adaptability with the presence of a generational talent.

"You prepare like you don't have the best players. That creates consistency. But let's be real: having #8 changes the math on every single snap." — NFL Scout (Anonymous)

The Lamar Multiplier

Here is the uncomfortable question nobody in the interview rooms wants to ask: Did Monken unlock Lamar, or did Lamar finally get a coordinator who simply got out of the way?

Under Greg Roman, the Ravens were a medieval battering ram. Effective, but archaic. Monken came in and spread the field. He didn't invent a new language; he just let the athlete breathe. But for teams hoping to replicate the "Ravens Model" without a Lamar Jackson on their roster, the data offers a stark warning. Monken’s history without an MVP quarterback isn't nearly as pristine.

MetricRavens (2024-25)Monken's Bucs (2018)
Pass Yds/Game#1 in NFL#1 in NFL
TurnoversLow (Top 5)High (26 INTs)
Win %.765.313

Look at that middle row. In Tampa Bay, Monken’s "Air Raid" philosophy led the league in passing yards, yes. It was fun. It was explosive. It was also a disaster that ended in 26 interceptions and a coaching purge. In Baltimore, the turnovers vanished. Why? Because Lamar Jackson doesn't throw blind picks. He erases bad play-calls with his legs.

The "Anti-System" Gamble

What Monken brings is not a rigid system, but a philosophy of shapeshifting. This is attractive to franchises tired of square-peg-round-hole coaching. The Shanahan disciples demand specific personnel to run The Scheme. Monken? He’ll run 12-personnel if he has tight ends, or 5-wide if he has speed.

It sounds perfect. But adaptability requires a quarterback who can process a changing landscape instantly. If the teams hiring Monken think they can plug in a bridge starter and get Baltimore-level efficiency, they are in for a rude awakening. You aren't hiring the scheme; you're hiring the play-caller. And play-callers look a lot smarter when the guy under center can make a linebacker miss in a phone booth.

The surge of interest in Monken isn't a shift toward innovation. It's a shift toward pragmatism. But pragmatism without talent is just a well-organized losing season. Proceed with caution.

MB
Mehdi Ben ArfaJournaliste

Tactique, stats et mauvaise foi. Le sport se joue sur le terrain, mais se gagne dans les commentaires. Analyse du jeu, du vestiaire et des tribunes.