The Monken Paradox: Why the NFL's New Obsession Might Be a Trap
NFL owners are scrambling to hire Todd Monken, convinced he holds the secret to offensive alchemy. But are they buying a system, or just renting the afterglow of Lamar Jackson’s brilliance? The numbers suggest a gamble.
So, we’re doing this again? The NFL coaching carousel has stopped spinning, and the finger is pointing squarely at Todd Monken. It makes sense, doesn’t it? When you engineer back-to-back offensive juggernauts in Baltimore and turn Lamar Jackson from a "running back" (remember those lazy takes?) into the league’s most efficient pocket surgeon, you get the keys to a franchise. That’s the rule.
But let’s pause the coronation for a second. (I know, I’m the buzzkill). If you look closely at the sudden adoration for the 59-year-old coordinator, you realize it signals a desperate pivot in the league’s philosophy. The era of the "Boy Genius"—the 30-something Sean McVay clone who memorized a single playbook—is fading. Owners now want "Adaptability." They want the guy who can win with a Stetson Bennett at Georgia and a Lamar Jackson in Baltimore.
The problem? They might be confusing adaptability with the presence of a generational talent.
"You prepare like you don't have the best players. That creates consistency. But let's be real: having #8 changes the math on every single snap." — NFL Scout (Anonymous)
The Lamar Multiplier
Here is the uncomfortable question nobody in the interview rooms wants to ask: Did Monken unlock Lamar, or did Lamar finally get a coordinator who simply got out of the way?
Under Greg Roman, the Ravens were a medieval battering ram. Effective, but archaic. Monken came in and spread the field. He didn't invent a new language; he just let the athlete breathe. But for teams hoping to replicate the "Ravens Model" without a Lamar Jackson on their roster, the data offers a stark warning. Monken’s history without an MVP quarterback isn't nearly as pristine.
| Metric | Ravens (2024-25) | Monken's Bucs (2018) |
|---|---|---|
| Pass Yds/Game | #1 in NFL | #1 in NFL |
| Turnovers | Low (Top 5) | High (26 INTs) |
| Win % | .765 | .313 |
Look at that middle row. In Tampa Bay, Monken’s "Air Raid" philosophy led the league in passing yards, yes. It was fun. It was explosive. It was also a disaster that ended in 26 interceptions and a coaching purge. In Baltimore, the turnovers vanished. Why? Because Lamar Jackson doesn't throw blind picks. He erases bad play-calls with his legs.
The "Anti-System" Gamble
What Monken brings is not a rigid system, but a philosophy of shapeshifting. This is attractive to franchises tired of square-peg-round-hole coaching. The Shanahan disciples demand specific personnel to run The Scheme. Monken? He’ll run 12-personnel if he has tight ends, or 5-wide if he has speed.
It sounds perfect. But adaptability requires a quarterback who can process a changing landscape instantly. If the teams hiring Monken think they can plug in a bridge starter and get Baltimore-level efficiency, they are in for a rude awakening. You aren't hiring the scheme; you're hiring the play-caller. And play-callers look a lot smarter when the guy under center can make a linebacker miss in a phone booth.
The surge of interest in Monken isn't a shift toward innovation. It's a shift toward pragmatism. But pragmatism without talent is just a well-organized losing season. Proceed with caution.
